Basic analysis of football stats (Part 1)

Greetings to all fans of football and football statistics!

Today the Corner-stats.com team decided to touch upon an interesting issue of basic analysis of teams statistics for the upcoming football match, which can give everyone serious food for thought.

So, for example, let's take the Italian Serie A match between Inter and Venezia, which will take place on 01/22/2022, and try to predict the corners in this match.

Consider the summary table of corners of the current season:



Corner-stats.com team proposes to build corners prediction only on the basic statistics from this table and discard all other factors (field factor (home-away), change of a coach, games with similar opponents, or others). So, Inter delivers an average of 6.19 corners per match, and Venezia delivers 2.95 corners per match, which we may take as our forecast.

But you may rightly note that corners depend not only on how the team takes them, but also on how the opponent allows corners at its goal. In our table, this corresponds to the opponent's corners total. To take into account at the same time how a team delivers and how an opponent allows corners, we will use a simple formula for the arithmetic mean of these indicators:

Expected corners Team 1 (Corners_1) = ( Team 1 individual total (Team1_IT1) + Team 2 opponents' total (Team2_IT2) ) / 2;

Expected corners Team 2 (Corners_2) = ( Team 2 individual total (Team2_IT1) + Team 1 opponents' total (Team1_IT2) ) / 2;

In the case of Inter - Venezia match, we will receive the following data:

Corners_1 = ( 6.19 + 6.62 ) / 2 = 6.41

Corners_2 = ( 2.95 + 3.86 ) / 2 = 3.41

Thus, we expect that Inter will deliver 6.41 corners in the upcoming match, and Venezia 3.41 corners, which approximately corresponds to a handicap of -3 and a total of 9.5 corners (you can calculate the bookmaker's line more accurately based on the expected figures of the teams using the tool Calculate line on Corner-stats football stats service).

And now we want to ask our users, do you think this calculation is logical and correct? Or do you have any doubt about it? We invite you to leave your comment on this issue in our Telegram chat https://t.me/soccer_stats_and_bet , and the Corner-stats.com team will provide its own answer in our next post.

Hi! Check out fresh hotlines for today:

In 12 of 16 last international matches of Al Ain, there was total corners over 9.5 (10.94 on avg.)
11/02    Al Ain SCC - Foolad Mobarak. | You may bet on corners in this match at Bet365 >>

In 14 of 16 last Charleroi's matches with similar opponents, there was total goals over 2.5 (3.5 on avg.)
11/02    Charleroi - KV Mechelen | You may bet on total goals in this match at Pinnacle >>

If Brentford is winning in a match then the team still is delivering many corners (+2.29 avg. diff. on corners on winning intervals)
11/02    Brentford - Leeds | You may bet on corners in live in this match at Pinnacle >>

Swansea lost on cards in 13 of 18 matches at home this season
11/02    Swansea - QPR | You may bet on cards handicap in this match at Bet365 >>

Match 1: 15/02/20 RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen
Goals: -1.5 (handicap) | 3.5 (total)
Cards: +0.5 | 3.5
Corners: -3.5 | 9.5

Match 2: 15/02/20 Atalanta - Roma
Goals: -0.5 | 3.5
Cards: +0.5 | 5.5
Corners: -1.5 | 10.5

Match 3: 14/02/20 Monaco - Montpellier
Goals: -0.5 | 2.5
Cards: -0.5 | 4.5
Corners: -1.5 | 9.5

Match 4: 16/02/20 Aston Villa - Tottenham
Goals: +0.5 | 2.5
Cards: +0.5 | 3.5
Corners: +0.5 | 10.5

1. Terms:
Each active participant in the forum can take part in a competition in which it is proposed to predict the head start and total for goals, cards and corners in 4 matches.

2. Scoring system:
 - correctly predicted handicap: +3 points
 - correctly predicted total: +3 points
 - correctly predicted accurate score: +5 points

Thus, the maximum possible score for 1 match = 33.

3. Forecasts:
For each competition, a separate topic is created with the name Competition #N (the end date for the acceptance of forecasts), in which participants must leave their forecasts. Points on cards are calculated according to the 1 + 2 system (1 point for a yellow card, 2 points for a red card, the second yellow is not taken into account).

The forecast format is as follows:

Match 1:
1: 1 (goals)
2: 5 (points on cards)
8: 5 (corner)
Match 2:
1: 2
4: 5
7: 2
Match 3:
0: 1
1: 1
8: 8
Match 4:
1: 5
1: 2
2: 7

4. Results.
After the end of all matches, a table of results and places of all participants of the competition is lined up. With the same amount of points, the participant who published the forecast faster will be higher.

5. Prizes:
1st place: 1 month of free use of the Corner-stats.com service or a $ 50 discount on access.
2-5 places: an additional free month of using the service when acquiring access.