01/09/19. Spartak M - Zenit. RPL (Russia). Handicap

At the weekend the next game week in the national leagues will be held, although just yesterday many teams played in the Champions League and Europa League qualifications. Therefore, this time the Corner-stats.com team decided to study how the team’s game in European competitions in the middle of the week affects the next match in the national league in a few days.

A few words about our previous prediction - now it’s already obvious that the bookmaker made a mistake in the match Wolverhampton – Pyunik, having initially set total cards of 4.5 on an equal line, since closer to the beginning of the match, total cards became 3.0 on an equal line. The Corner-stats.com team successfully took advantage of this error, the bet on total cards under won with a margin (match score 1:0 on cards).

So, let's consider the match Spartak M - Zenit, which will take place on 01/09/19 as part of the 8th game week of Russian Premier League. According to bookmakers, Zenit is a favorite of the match, despite the fact that the team plays away. Spartak goes with a handicap of +0.25 with odds of 2.01 (Pinnacle), although in the previous 3 matches of Spartak at home with Zenit the handicap was 0 and -0.25 on an approximately equal line. Probably not the last factor in this is that Spartak played in the middle of the week in Europa League, and Zenit had a rest, that is, bookmakers consider Spartak's extra match in European cups to be a negative factor for the Moscow team.

And now we will study the statistics of how Spartak played after the matches in European competitions. Since we are not interested in a clean outcome, but a handicap, we will use the Corner-stats.com site tool "Handicap covering":

Thus, in the current season in 100% of cases (3 matches out of 3) in the RPL right after the matches in European competitions Spartak covered the handicap.

Also we'll take a look at the previous season: in 7 matches after Eurocups the handicap was covered 3.5 times, 1.5 returns and 2 losses on the handicap.

So, it turns out that the fatigue of the team after participating in European competitions in the middle of the week is a myth? It is possible that it is so, and this factor is overrated.

The statistics of H2H matches of Spartak and Zenit are also on the side of the Moscow team - in the last 10 H2H matches of the teams 5.5 times Spartak covered the handicap, 1.5 times there was a return and 3 times the handicap was covered by Zenit.

So, the forecast of the Corner-stats.com team is handicap +0.25 of Spartak vs Zenit at odds 2.01 at Pinnacle.