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New-zealandAnalytics
Among other things, national team matches are also distinguished by a wide range of opponents. That is, a statistically average..
Date added:
11/06/2024
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Bookmaker line calculation
23/04/2021
Bookmaker line calculation for upcoming matches is the calculation of the odds for the outcome, double chance, handicap and total based on team statistics (average team totals). The line is calculated based on H2H, last or similar matches of teams. In addition, you can customize the selection of team matches using quick filters before calculating the line.
At the moment, the line is calculated for goals and corners, respectively, to use this tool, click on the "Сalculate line" button on the match page on the Goals or Corners tabs.
Please note that you can also enter custom data (expected goals/corners of teams) in the line calculation window. Also, for the convenience of our users, we made it possible to adjust the margin, which is different for different bookmakers (by default, the margin is 5.26%).
For example, lets try to calculate the line on corners in the match Chelsea - Sheffield United. So, let's open the Corners tab on the match page and go to the last matches of the teams. The button for calculating the bookmaker's line is located on the right next to the table of contents of Chelsea matches. By default, the individual totals of the teams (expected corners) are taken to calculate the line:
Expected corners Chelsea = Team total Chelsea + Opponents total Sheffield / 2
Expected corners of Sheffield = Team total Sheffield + Opponents total Chelsea / 2
But first, let's correct the teams' match samples. We will exclude the group of tournaments Other (clubs friendlies), and take only home matches for Chelsea, and only away matches for Sheffield. Thus, we get a couple of expected corners of the teams 6.15 - 4.25, which will be used by default in the calculation of the line. In addition, Corner-stats.com draws your attention to the fact that Sheffield has the best ratio of team possession to team corners this season in EPL (1.87% possession per 1 corner), so we will add another 0.25 corners to Sheffield. Thus, we have the following line on corners in the match Chelsea - Sheffield United:
So, we got a base total of 10.5, like the bookmakers, but the base handicap of -1.5 differs from the bookmaker's one (-3.5), which says to bet on +3.5 on corners.
Please note that in this line calculation, we took into account the field (home-away) factor, as well as the Sheffield's ball possession to corners ratio. But there may be other important factors for you, for example, you can calculate the line based on similar matches or limit the samples of matches to the current season only, or increase the expected corners of one of the teams manually (for example, due tothe presence of high forwards in the lineup).
