Real Madrid - Liverpool. Champions League. 26/05/18. Offsides

A great football event of 2017/18 season is the final match of Champions League that will be held in Kiev on 26th of May, 2018.
This time corner-stats.com team paid attention to bet on offsides, some kind of exotical bets. In our opinion, bookmakers set quite big total of offsides of 5.5 on a straight line.

If to look at history of Champions League matches, there were not more than 5 offsides in the last 6 final matches (herewith Real Madrid played at 3 out of 4 last seasons in finals):
Season     Date     Teams     offsides1    offsides2
2011/12    19.05.2012    Bayern Munich - Chelsea    1    2
2012/13    25.05.2013    Borussia D – Bayern Munich    1    4
2013/14    24.05.2014    Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid    0    4
2014/15    06.06.2015    Juventus - Barcelona    1    0
2015/16    28.05.2016    Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid    0    2
2016/17    03.06.2017    Juventus - Real Madrid    3    1
 
Team site of Corner-stats.com believes that top teams are not particularly inclined to fall into the offside playing important matches because, firstly, professionals play sharply and, secondly, each attack in the finals is worth its weight in gold, so of course players will try to avoid offside.

Let's count average offsides of attackers in Champions League:
·    Real:
Ronaldo - 1.4 offside per match;
Karim Benzema - 0.5 offside per match;
Isco - 0.4 offside per match
So, Real’s attack is estimated at 2.3 offsides on average.

·    Liverpool’s attack:
   Mohammed Salah - 0.7 offsides per match;
   Roberto Firmino - 0.2 offside per match;
   Sadio Mane - 1 offside per match.
So, Liverpool's attack will gain on average of 1.9 offside per match.

Let's look at what the offside statistics shows under 5.5 in the Champions League:
- 1 of 2 H2H matches in 2016-2018 seasons;
-7 out of 13 Real Madrid matches in 2017/18 season;
-    6 out of 14 Liverpool matches in  2017/18 season;
-    7 out of 10 matches of Real Madrid that are similar to Liverpool in 2014-2018 years (this stats can be observed on the screenshot below);
-    4 out of 5 matches of Liverpool that are similar to Real in 2014-2015 years.
As the people say, the main thing in this prognosis is that Ronaldo shouldn’t forget that he must score goals in the field, and not to go to offsides.

The team of Corner-stats.com considers the bet on total offsides under 5.5 at 1.9 odds at PariMatch to be attractive.